Experts point out that the chemical market has entered a new cycle

Recently, many important chemical production areas in the world encountered extreme cold weather. Affected by this, there are problems with the transportation of certain chemicals such as polyethylene. Coupled with the continuous rise in international oil prices since late December last year, as the downstream chemical market showed signs of strength earlier this year. Experts pointed out that the impact of the current global economic crisis is gradually receding, and the chemical market has entered a new round of economic cycle.

In the past half-month, heavy snow conditions continued to occur in parts of Europe, causing some polyolefins to be blocked. The product backlog has forced companies to reduce operating rates or even stop production. With the production capacity in Europe and North America accounting for more than one-third of the world, the extremely cold weather has given a certain boost to the polyethylene market.

"Although the European rain and snow weather will not bring direct impact on the domestic polyethylene market, but from the price trend of the past few days, the domestic polyethylene offer did rise slightly." China Chemical Network analyst Xue Jinlei accepted the book yesterday. An interview with the reporter said.

He pointed out that the polyethylene market has been stable for years ago, but the price has risen by RMB 300 since New Year's Day. For example, the price of LLDPE (linear low-density polyethylene) was 11,000 yuan per ton before, and yesterday's price was 11,300 yuan.

In addition, due to the boost of the futures market and the downstream polyester polyester market, the domestic PTA price also rose sharply yesterday, and the mainstream quotation in the North China market has risen to around 10,000-10,100 yuan/ton. Styrene prices both in Europe and the United States have both increased. Among them, Europe closed up 4 US dollars to 1338.5-1340.5 USdollars/ton.

In Xue Jinlei's view, the factors that led to the rise in the price of polyethylene and other chemicals after the New Year's Day, apart from the rain and snow weather, also included the impact of the previous deadline.

“Because of the shortage of diesel oil, PetroChina and Sinopec have been reducing their ethylene production capacity and increasing their supply of diesel fuel, leading to a decline in the inventory of related chemicals. This also affects the supply and demand balance in the polyethylene market.” Xue Jinlei said.

The industry believes that the global polyolefin market price may rise further due to higher oil prices, the sudden stoppage of some devices in the Middle East, and the supply disruption caused by this shipment.

“At present, the chemical market has entered a new round of economic cycle.” Liu Xintian, editor-in-chief of China Chemical Industry Network, told the reporter yesterday that the impact of the global economic crisis is gradually receding. The external environment of the chemical market is lower than 2008 and 2009. The year is more clear and the future environment will tend to be stable. At the same time, the market has “rebounded” for 18 months. This can be understood as the initial and rising phase of the new round of the cycle. In addition, both the crude oil upstream of the industrial chain and the engineering plastics and fine chemical products downstream of the industrial chain have all appeared on the net in the near future. This indicates that the entire chemical sector is entering a new business cycle.

He believes that the chemical market is still expected to be in a rising stage in 2011, especially if crude oil prices continue to exert force will bring greater impetus to the chemical market. However, if the oil price weakens in the second half of the year, it does not rule out that the chemical market enters the finishing stage in advance.

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