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After the industry's recovery and differentiation in 2013, where is the investment opportunity of the LED industry in 2014 near the end of the year, major brokers have expressed their views on the future development trend of the industry and investment strategies. In general, the securities industry for the LED industry in 2014 The development tends to be optimistic, especially optimistic about the increase in LED lighting penetration.
It is expected that the demand for general lighting LEDs will increase by 62 in 2014. In 2014, the LED penetration rate of the general lighting market will increase from 3-5 in 2013 to around 9 (based on the global total lumen demand, the penetration rate can reach about 7 from the demand of bulbs) . It is even said that in view of the recent rapid decline in the price of LED bulbs, there is currently room for an increase in the LED penetration estimate for 2014 (based on lumen penetration).
Said to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the LED segment of the electronics industry. Judging that the supply of high-brightness LED chips in 2014 is likely to regain tension. A comprehensive analysis of the global supply and demand situation of high-brightness (HB) gallium nitride (GaN) LEDs shows that the oversupply situation of the LED chip industry in the past three years may be significantly tightened in 2014, thanks to the general lighting The growing demand and more rational expansion of major LED chip manufacturers.
Explored the expansion plan of major LED chip manufacturers in 2014. Among them, Epistar expects that the production capacity of Epistar will increase by approximately 100,000-inch wafers per month in 2014, which is about 15.5% higher than its current monthly production capacity of 650,000. Epistar will express its facilities in Taiwan and China. Each adds about 20-25 MOCVD equipment. Sanan Optoelectronics has announced a new financing plan to start the second phase of construction in Wuhu. The newly planned LED chip fab will increase annual production capacity by 1.2 million wafers (4 inches) with a total investment of 4.1 billion yuan ($664 million). Sanan said it will purchase about 100 MOCVD equipment for its new fab in 2014. The fund raising plan must be approved by the shareholders and the China Securities Regulatory Commission. However, Sanan can start the construction of the second phase of Wuhu before the fund-raising is completed, because the company held 1.6 billion yuan in cash (US$260 million) as of the first quarter of 2013. Both Dehao Runda and Tongfang Co., both of which said that the expansion will depend on the market environment.
It is expected that the global demand for HBLED chips will increase by 29 in 2014, but the supply will only increase by 17. It is expected that the global supply and demand of HBLED will return to a more balanced situation in 2014: the supply surplus rate will drop sharply from 31 in 2012 to the expected in 2014. Will promote the profitability of the entire supply chain, especially LED chip manufacturers.
Also in a recent research report, in the medium term, the layout of the LED boom cycle has arrived, and it is recommended to focus on the LED upstream chip leader.
LED lighting will exceed backlighting as the largest application market. Since the penetration rate of LED backlights in LCD TVs has reached more than 90 this year, the global LCD TV shipments have remained stable. Although the TV size has become larger, its judgment has reached a peak with the increase in chip brightness, particle count and product price reduction. Lighting will be the main driver of future industry development. From 2013 to 2016, it is the golden development period of LED lighting, and the penetration rate will increase from 20 to 45. It is a rare sub-industry with relatively fast growth and high certainty.
LEDinside, an industry research institute, predicts that LED backlights will completely replace CCFLs in 2014, but the number of direct-lit TVs that have leapt to the mainstream has been reduced by 50% compared with the side-light type. The LEDTV backlight output value is likely to decline for the first time in history and enters the impulse. The standardization era; while LED lighting is climbing against the trend, the output value will surpass the backlight for the first time.
In 2014, the penetration rate of LED lighting increased. LED lighting is still in the early stages of growth, and is optimistic about companies with high quality products and excellent management. LED backlights still have room for growth, and it is expected that there will be 2-3 years of high growth in the large-scale backlight industry.
It is expected that the demand for LED lighting products will usher in an explosion next year. Since 2014, more regions in the world will enter the stage of prohibiting the production, sale and use of incandescent lamps, accelerating the growth of LED lighting demand, and demand will exceed the backlight for the first time. Many regions around the world have replaced 40-watt or 60-watt LED bulbs, and the lowest price has been less than $10. In the future, LEDs will have limited space to fall, and the number of LED lighting shipments will grow. It is estimated that the global LED lighting products will have a production value of US$17.8 billion in 2014, and the growth rate of product usage is expected to reach 69.