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LED lighting is not afraid of late, will start in 2014, enter a high-speed upward cycle of 2-3 years. According to a recent report by BOC International Securities, demand starts are mainly driven by product price declines. The profitability of chip manufacturers will be better maintained in 2014. The growth of downstream light source and luminaire manufacturers mainly comes from the increase in demand, and the mid-stream packaging changes greatly. The main factors leading to this change are technological changes and upstream and downstream extrusion.
The integration of the LED industry, especially upstream and midstream, will be further accelerated, and the downstream light source and lighting market may be diversified. Changes in channels and models have become new elements in the growth of the LED lighting industry. E-commerce or other models are likely to become the way for terminal manufacturers to break the traditionally cured lighting channels.
The LED lighting industry will begin a new high-speed growth cycle in 2014. The main factor driving the growth of lighting is the price drop. The price of the bulbs observed by LEDinside shows that the price of terminal lighting bulbs has fallen by more than 20 in the past 12 months. According to channel research, the 3.5W-5W bulb has been very close to the energy-saving lamps of more than a dozen W in the Chinese market. LEDinside predicts that the output value of LED lighting will reach 17.8 billion US dollars in 2014, and the total number of LED lighting products shipped will reach 1.32 billion, an increase of 68.
The chip integration process will continue, and the supply and demand situation will benefit the chip makers' profitability. 2014-2015 may be the last good time for chip makers to grow. The brutal competition in the past few years has greatly reduced the number of chip manufacturers in mainland China. From the scale, Sanan Optoelectronics, Dehao Runda, Huacan Optoelectronics, and Tongfang Semiconductor have already stabilized their first echelon. Due to factors such as capital investment capacity and technical level, the integration of chip manufacturers will further accelerate and form a pyramid structure. In 2014, the supply and demand structure of chips is more tightly balanced, which is beneficial to chip makers' profit margins.
The structure of the light source and luminaire manufacturers will present a diverse set of features. The price drop of my terminal products will continue. The light source and lighting manufacturers will transmit the cost pressure to the packaging manufacturers on the one hand; on the other hand, they will further increase the profit margin pressure brought by the price reduction in the product design.
The package vendor variable is large. Due to the decline in product prices and the short-term factors in the industry chain, the profit margin of packaging manufacturers is vulnerable to the upstream and downstream. Looking for an extended industrial chain and a new growth breakthrough has become a top priority for packaging companies from 2014 to 2015. Extensive expansions such as mergers and acquisitions, integration, etc. will also become frequent in this area.
The properties of the high-end electronics manufacturing industry in the LED industry are getting stronger. The electronics manufacturing industry in the LED lighting industry is becoming more and more powerful. On the one hand, advances in technology have driven the cost of chips to the downstream terminal industry to decline; on the other hand, as market demand has increased, the role of capital investment effectiveness, cost control capabilities, and management capabilities in market competition has increased. The bigger it is.
In addition to competing with traditional lighting manufacturers in terms of channels, traditional semiconductor manufacturers must pay more and more attention to the cost advantages and process control advantages of traditional lighting manufacturers in manufacturing.
Capital expenditure capacity supports the long-term growth of listed companies. As the electronics manufacturing industry, the LED lighting industry is an important guarantee for expansion. Listed companies have greater advantages in financing and capital expenditures.