Since the beginning of this year, the heavy truck market has been affected by the macro economy. Near the end of the year, the macroeconomic situation has shown signs of stabilization and recovery, but the heavy-duty truck market remains sluggish. From June this year to the present, the monthly sales of the heavy-duty truck market have not broken “5†(ten thousand vehicles). For logistics companies, Xu Changming gave three suggestions. The first is to specialize, which requires a step-by-step approach; the second is to be high-end, with the economic development, consumers have value-added demand for the value of goods, and the demand is growing, high-end transport companies must continue to occupy this part of the market , High-end customers try their best to do it. The third is to guide customers, do not just focus on price, to help customers do a full service chain. switch Suzhou Arenland Automotive Technology co.,ltd , https://www.arlautoparts.com
Not long ago, the reporter interviewed Xu Changming, director of the Information Resource Department of the National Information Center, and asked him to analyze the situation faced by the heavy truck market from a macroeconomic perspective, and to look into the future trends of the heavy truck market, based on which truck companies and logistics companies are based. Give some suggestions and expect to learn from and help companies that are experiencing “winterâ€.
Structural change in investment is the main cause of the downturn
“The commercial vehicle market is highly related to macroeconomics. Changes in the macroeconomy basically determine the development of the commercial vehicle market. In particular, heavy trucks are more affected by economic fluctuations. The general rule is that when the economy goes from low to high, it climbs. It is faster than other models; when the economic growth rate falls from high to low, its decline is also greater than other models, which is the characteristics of heavy trucks.†Xu Changming is straight to the point, simply to analyze the main reasons for the continued downturn in the heavy truck market, “large this year One of the outstanding features of the commercial vehicle market is that the more cars that are related to daily life, the bigger the increase, and the greater the decline in the number of cars that are associated with production activities.The growth of life-style vehicles like passenger cars and the growth of micro-cards is the reason for the heavy truck market this year. The worst is that this is the effect of the overall macroeconomic slowdown this year."
Xu Changming told reporters that from the perspective of macroeconomic analysis, the transport market should be conducted from the four levels of GDP, industrial structure, transportation sharing rate, and transport efficiency. The focus here is on GDP. GDP growth rate from 8.9% in the fourth quarter of last year to 8% in the first quarter of this year, 7.6% in the second quarter, 7.4% in the third quarter, all the way down, but judging directly from the decline in the heavy truck can not be judged, this is only a factor, but there must be Influence then subdivide it. There are three components of GDP: investment, consumption, exports, consumption, and exports have little impact on truck demand. This year's consumption is still quite good, and investment and exports have fallen by a large margin. The investment is roughly divided into three parts: real estate, infrastructure engineering, and manufacturing. The three requirements for heavy trucks are different. The major decline in investment this year is in infrastructure projects, and this drop in investment will have a greater impact on heavy trucks. Because the unit project investment has brought about a large decline in the amount of large projects, which shows that this year's investment changes have a greater impact on heavy trucks, which is a structural feature. The real estate relationship is also relatively large, but this part is not large.
In addition, each province has a financing platform. The funds are mainly used for infrastructure construction. There are two sources of funds: one is local government land sales, and the other is bank loans. Affected by real estate policies this year, the proceeds from land sales have decreased significantly; and because banks are concerned about the risks of local financing platforms and bank loans are limited, local infrastructure construction fund is also lacking, resulting in a large decline in infrastructure investment this year. . From the perspective of the unit of GDP or the amount of traffic per unit of investment, this part of infrastructure engineering corresponds to the largest amount, and its coverage is also affected.
Mid-to-long term heavy truck market is on the rise
In the future, what are the development trends of the truck market in the short, medium and long term? Xu Changming gave the judgment.
He believes that there will be no major changes in the truck market in the short term and will maintain the current pattern. He predicted that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year will rebound slightly, about 0.5 percentage points higher, and 7.4% in the third quarter of this year, and 7.9% in the fourth quarter. In this context, the economy has rebounded in the fourth quarter. As the economy picks up, the auto market will also pick up, which is slightly better than the current situation. The specific figures are hard to say.
In the medium to long term, that is, in the next eight to ten years, the demand for heavy trucks for commercial vehicles will increase year by year, showing an upward trend. The main judgment is that China's industrial structure has not yet undergone major changes. The first and second industries are still the mainstream of economic development. The proportion of the tertiary industry is still relatively low, and transport materials are mainly produced in the first and second stages of production. As long as the ratio of secondary and secondary production remains stable, GDP will have a growth rate of 7% to 8%, which means that the supply will go upwards, which will drive the development of the entire market.
At present, China has not completely entered the period of economic transition and most of it is supported by labor-intensive industries. Transformation and upgrading are a difficult and long process and require changes in the entire social environment. Therefore, in the next eight to ten years, China’s industrial structure will The essential transformation is an escalating process. This means that it will be difficult for the future industrial structure to undergo a major transformation, and it will also mean what kind of growth GDP growth will bring. In light of medium and long-term demand, the demand for heavy trucks is still growing. The growth rate is probably slightly lower than the growth rate of GDP. If the GDP growth rate is 8%, it may be 7%.
The medium term is now unpredictable. It depends on what kind of tone the Central Government will set for next year's economy and future economics at the end of the 18th National Party Congress. It will be clear in the second and third months of next year.
China's auto market faces two risks in the future: one may be like the years after 1998, the development speed is slow, car sales fall by about 5% every year, the total auto production and sales volume of 1.5 million units does not change in 5 years, and passenger vehicles increase annually. From 7% to 8%, commercial vehicles drop by a few percent each year. This risk exists. The other is that as the economy is overheating, the speed of automobile development has also gone up. It has quickly developed and is faster than this year.
Xu Changming believes that scientific development should be emphasized. GDP growth at 7% to 8% is good. Under this mode of growth, do not invest too much resources. Although high energy input has brought GDP growth, environmental pollution has also increased, and energy will become more and more tense. At present, China’s oil reserves have only 130 million tons, and only two or three years can only rely on imports. It is dangerous to not control them. The pace of development should be adjusted to this year's level. This speed is very healthy. Truck companies should slowly adapt to this speed and take initiative to consider how sales revenue and profit growth can be achieved without increasing sales, and then increase product prices and adjust product mix.
Must be good at studying the macroeconomic environment
In the "winter", how should truck companies respond? Xu Changming believes that first, companies must be good at studying the national macro environment and closely follow the country’s economic environment and macroeconomic policies, which is very beneficial to enterprises. Enterprises should make more efforts in this regard, increase the investment in the early stage and put the work ahead. This is a matter of spending small money.
Second, compared with the previous decade, there may be a qualitative change in the growth rate of the truck market in the future. Enterprises should pay sufficient attention to this. The average annual growth rate of the heavy truck market in the first 10 years is about 30%. This will certainly not happen in the future. The reason is that, first, the first 10 years are a period of high economic growth in China, and mainly rely on heavy chemical industry; second, the replacement of heavy trucks by China Cards, the average annual growth rate of cards in the first 10 years is about 14%, and the heavy truck is 30%. The increased portion is all in the heavy truck market. The structure of the two in the future should be at a more reasonable level. In the future, enterprises will only rely on the enhancement of their core competitiveness to make their products more competitive. Otherwise, if a big wave breaks through the waves, it will not work in the past. Therefore, if a company wants to stay, it will need to improve its internal strength.
Xu Changming believes that the core competitiveness of enterprises is mainly reflected in the refinement of internal management. First, the quality of products at any stage must be guaranteed. To develop new products, detailed research must be conducted based on market demand. In the future, more attention should be paid to fuel economy performance. Secondly, most of the heavy trucks in the past were high-power and low-speed driving. By overloading, the future would certainly not succeed. Can carry out high-speed standard loading, how much the number of loaded on the standard, how much, and the speed should go up, fuel consumption should be reduced. Third, the country is now increasingly demanding environmental protection, truck companies must find ways to save energy and reduce emissions. Fourth, nowadays, younger generation drivers are demanding more and more vehicles. They must have an entertainment system, have a comfortable cab, and have a cool exterior. Therefore, enterprises must do all they have to do, do a good job in the early stages, and sell products as soon as they are developed.
In fact, many companies do not invest enough in the early stages and are unwilling to spend money on product development and market research. This is the current status of most companies. As a result, the development of ten products may only be successful. This shows that companies have not studied the needs of consumers when developing products. If the products are developed and then changed, they will not meet the market requirements. This will cause problems. Therefore, manufacturing companies must consider that in the past, they called for opportunities. In the future, they must improve their competitiveness, intensively and meticulously, and they must do it in all aspects. Whoever does this will have a market in the future.