Is it a rumor that the new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment plan will be introduced soon?

The rumors that the "new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment plan is about to be introduced" have not yet landed from the beginning of the year to October 28, but new rumors continue. On November 7, an author named "Bai Hua Hua Kai" published "Warning!" An article about the three major rumors and five big lies of new energy vehicles. The article said that "the new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment program is about to be released is a rumor", which caused the author to think in a series: If it is a "rumor", why do people have to make this rumor again and again? If it is a "rumor", why do you want to pass on many media? If it is a "rumor", why do you think the letter will be doubtful?

First, the new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment program "coming soon" is a rumor?

"Coming soon" is a rumor. The main point is that he and the official public statement are not meant at all. The "future" used by government officials, which was interpreted as "coming soon", is the "key" of this rumor. Baidu's explanation: In 1947, Allport & Postman gave a formula for deciding rumors: rumor = (event) importance × (event) ambiguity; this formula points out that the two elements of rumors are the importance of the event With ambiguity. The more important and ambiguous the event, the greater the effect of the rumor. When the importance and ambiguity side tend to zero, rumors will not occur. In order to terminate the spread of rumors, the truth of the incident should be disclosed in a timely manner. The so-called: "The rumor ends with the truth."

The above formula explains the relationship between the two elements of the rumor and the elements. New energy vehicle subsidy standards are extremely important for the development of the industry. Under the favorable news of the 2016 New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Subsidy Standard jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Development and Reform Commission on April 22, 2015, the new November-December 2015 will be ushered in. A small climax of energy production and sales.

This climax is a bit unusual. Many people have begun to doubt the scientific and rationality of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. The 2016 subsidy policy stimulated the development of new energy vehicles in 2015 ahead of schedule. This shows that the power of policy is too great. Therefore, some experts worried that "it is necessary to speed up the subsidy of subsidies for new energy vehicles, and we must adjust the subsidy standards that have been introduced." On the one hand, it is the official document of the government, and it has not yet been implemented. On the one hand, the experts have questioned and downgraded the subsidy standards, and the senior leaders did not respond positively to the doubts of the experts. Its importance is self-evident, and the interpretation is increasingly blurred. Then the conditions for the "coming soon" rumors are basically in place.

Second, "new energy vehicle subsidy program to be adjusted" is not a rumor?

Since the outbreak of the scam in the beginning of the year, the voice of the new energy vehicle subsidy program has to be adjusted. Here, senior government officials represent the government's high-profile stance on official occasions. See Figure 1 below:

Screenshot of the article "The other side of the flower"

Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance, on August 21, 2016, the China Electric Vehicles 100 People’s Association held a summer forum in Zhengzhou, Henan Province with the theme of “Safety and Security, Leading Innovation”, clearly stated that the general policy is easy for enterprises to suffer from cartilage. In the future, the subsidy policy will be adjusted: First, cooperate with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to improve the financial subsidy policy on the basis of improving the technology threshold. The second is to improve the subsidy standards. The third is to improve the regulatory system. The fourth is to establish a market-oriented development mechanism. The department will actively cooperate with the Ministry of Industry and other departments to speed up the establishment of relevant systems to ensure that the support of new energy vehicles after the withdrawal of the financial subsidy policy continues.

Deputy Director Song Qiuling made a clear statement in his speech on the stage that “the subsidy policy will be adjusted”, but there is the word “future” in front. The author was also at the meeting on the same day. At that time, I thought about it. The "future" is a vague and inaccurate concept of time. What year is it from the day, and that month is the "future"? "Future will" is a future tense. From the grammatical point of view, Deputy Director Song Qiuling did not say that the “subsidy policy adjustment” has been initiated in the study, not to mention that the “subsidy policy adjustment” work is already underway. The Chinese divide the time period into three concepts: “past, present, and future”. The deputy director of Song Qiuling uses the word "future". Is it more distant than "future"? (Note: People who engage in policy research, so deep into the use of "words" is a professional requirement)

Third, "new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment program is about to be introduced" is a rumor? Is there a basis?

Currently in the Internet age, the era of big data has arrived, and at the same time the "network rumors" are in full swing. This is an objective phenomenon that does not change with personal preference. Enterprises are increasingly sensitive to external information, and in particular, major industry policy information is highly valued. What rumors? What is a rumor? The enterprise must have the ability to identify it. The following is a rumor that the "new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment program is about to be released".

The following is an example of the formulation and release of the Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap. On October 26, 2016, the China Automotive Engineering Society released the “Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles”, which is a PPT map.

Figure 2 Introduction to the Time Node of the Energy Technology and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap

It can be seen from this PPT that the “Energy and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap” lasted more than a year (August 2015 to August 2016), and it has experienced nine important time nodes from start to finalization. This picture shows that the national strategy (policy) formulation process is quite complicated, very rigorous, and the specifications are quite high, and it also consumes a lot of manpower and financial resources. The development of the Energy Technology and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap is attended by more than 500 experts. It is a process of democracy and concentration, and its release has a strict approval process. Once released, it will definitely take longer than 10 years. Suppose (emphasis is hypothesis) Some experts disagree with this technology roadmap, ambiguously arbitrarily, or some experts have come up with their own research results to revise this technical roadmap, suggesting that it is necessary to make changes, is it possible? Will the higher authorities adopt this advice?

Next, let's talk about the topic. The 2016 New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Subsidy Standard is the Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2016-2020 signed by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission on April 22, 2015. Annex 1 of the Notice. This document is much higher than the level of the Energy and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap. This document clearly stipulates that it is necessary to manage for five years. At the same time, the specific provisions on the indicators are made on the subsidy standards and how to retreat according to the annual scale. Some experts put forward the proposal to “speed up the subsidy standard to retreat”, which is already in 2016, and the document “2016 New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Subsidy Standard” was released in the first half of 2015. Logically, the experts' suggestions have been made after the event. The adjustment scheme that flows out on the network is a watch, not too serious. From the management's point of view, such high-specification and specific policies have not been officially released before, and they are absolutely confidential and impossible to flow out. In a word, the other side of the article "Warning! "The three major rumors about the new energy car and the five major lies" in the "energy car subsidy adjustment program is about to be released is a rumor" Believe it or not? Enterprises must have their own opinions.

Fourth, the rumors ultimately hurt the industry, is the enterprise

Why do some people want to build it again and again? Why do online media keep forwarding "rumors"? There are three main reasons for this:

1) The development speed of new energy vehicles in 2015 is fast, and some experts are not expected. So everyone has to think about why it is so fast. Naturally, we must find the reason, in which some bus factories have found “deceptions”, the disclosure of information is “fraudulent”, and the amount of fraud is not small. Later, more than 90 companies from over 90 companies were online. Enterprises are suspected of fraud. This shows that "the speed of development" is watery.

The author believes that the rapid development of new energy vehicles in 2015 is an objective fact. The main reason for this is that the “2016 New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Subsidy Standard” issued by the four ministries and commissions was released in advance, and the news of the development of the new energy automobile industry was the result of good news. However, the nature of "cheats" is quite bad. It is natural and natural to propose speeding up the "subsidy" to retreat. The reason is very simple. There is no “subsidy”. Naturally, there is no “cheat”. This is logically feasible. Conversely, because of the “cheat” behavior, the subsidy is disbursed or the subsidy is suspended. Logically, It is nowhere.

2) "Cheats" is a shameful behavior that challenges the social "moral" bottom line. The subsidy is the government's financial money. This money comes from the "tax". Everyone is a taxpayer. "Cheat compensation" is to lie to the hard-earned money of the people. So some experts and scholars began to talk at different summit forums. One was to condemn some enterprises for unethical "cheat" behavior; the second is to strongly demand that the government's new energy vehicle subsidy standards should be increased by a downward margin; Proactively drafted the “plan” and passed it through the online media in the industry.

Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance, responded positively with the words “future will”, and answered the “new energy vehicle subsidy adjustment plan” that has already been announced. However, some experts have to increase the scope of the "new energy vehicle subsidy standards" proposal has been proposed, but also the government has not adopted, so every month, "new energy vehicle subsidy standard adjustment is about to be introduced" information, and get the grassroots enterprise industry "six gods "No owner.

Why do you want to do this? The reason is very simple. China's development of new energy vehicles is the general trend, but the specific technical route of new energy vehicles in China has never stopped. Some experts do not agree with the current technical route advocated by the government.

It is right to condemn some companies' unethical "cheats" behavior, but it is nowhere to ask the government to repeatedly revise the "2016 New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Subsidy Standards" that the government has announced. Because of the emergence of defrauding behaviors of some enterprises, there is no causal relationship between the proposed amendments to the 2016 New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Subsidy Standard.

3) There is competition between online media, but you must have your own opinion. The media's different suggestions and voices are their responsibility. The divergence of new energy vehicles in the technical route is an objective phenomenon. The online media reported on the views of the positive and negative sides, and there is no right or wrong. However, there is competition among the media. Therefore, some media have added their own preferences in order to improve the click-through rate and interpret the opinions of the experts. For example, the interpretation of “future will” is about to be introduced. This is a typical example.

In summary, the rumors hurt the development trend of the industry and hurt the enthusiasm of grassroots enterprises to develop new energy vehicles. The forecast issued by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers at the beginning of the year: In 2016, China’s new energy development scale was 700,000 units, and it is not allowed to re-predict it at around 550,000 units. The relevant departments are still hesitating. The fourth batch of "Recommended Catalogue of New Energy Vehicles and Cars" does not know when to release. Can the target of 550,000 this year be realized? People will wait and see.

The empty window period of the new energy policy in 2013 was 9 months, which caused great damage to the grassroots enterprises. In 2016, the new energy policy was released 8 months in advance, giving the grassroots enterprises a hope that the company will bring great achievements to the industry. However, the start of the new energy policy in 2016 has been waiting for more than 10 months, but it has not been seen. At the grassroots level, it has caused a lot of damage to enterprises. The 2013 new energy policy has a much larger window. Please discuss the rational and scientific experts in the new energy vehicle policy to the grassroots level to understand the actual situation.

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