Subsidy retreat car companies "bleed" New energy industry will welcome the first round of reshuffle

In 2017, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 770,000 vehicles. The annual growth rate of 53% is 14 times the growth rate of the overall auto market. Behind this figure, however, is the sharp decline in profits of many new energy car companies. Judging from the performance forecast announced by several auto companies in recent days, as new energy subsidies are fully declining, the profits of enterprises are directly reduced.
Winning or losing does not matter. New energy subsidies were once the biggest driver of car companies developing new energy vehicles. Now, with the subsidy declining, some companies have become unstable. In the future, the policy orientation of new energy vehicles will gradually shift to being driven by market forces. Under such changes, the new energy auto industry will usher in the first round of reshuffling.
Car prices "bleeding"
According to the second batch of subsidies for new energy vehicles announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in the near future, the number of new energy vehicles declared by enterprises in 2016 was 15,131, the enterprises applied for liquidation funds, 3.179 billion yuan, and the expert group approved 14,729 vehicles for promotion. The subsidy funds should be cleared of 3.065 billion yuan. From the amount of subsidy, it can be seen that auto companies are highly dependent on new energy subsidies. The main reason for the decline in profits of new energy listed companies in 2017 was the significant increase in receivables from new energy vehicles.
Zhongtong Bus (000957.SZ) announced on January 23 that the company’s net profit for 2017 is expected to be between RMB 170 million and RMB 230 million, down 70.98% from 2016 to 60.75%. Zhongtong Bus Company stated that the company's operating performance in 2017 decreased compared to the same period of last year, which was due to the substantial reduction in national new energy passenger vehicle subsidy standards in 2017. Affected by this policy, the gross profit margin of the company's products has fallen significantly. The performance forecast of Foton Motor (600166.SH) also shows the negative impact of subsidy withdrawal on the company's operating performance. Foton Motor stated that the company’s net profit in 2017 will be reduced by 396 million yuan to 510 million yuan from the same period of last year, a decrease of 70% to 90% year-on-year. Ankai's 2017 annual report shows: “In the first half of the year, the loss was nearly 30 million yuan, and the subsidies for new energy vehicles were 2.24 billion yuan.”
These new energy car companies rank higher in the new energy industry. The decline in net profit is so high that the reasons given by several companies are basically the same. Zhongtong Bus stated that in 2017, the national new energy passenger vehicle subsidy standard was substantially reduced, and the gross profit rate of the company's products declined significantly. Foton Motor believes that the company's operating performance in 2017 decreased compared with the same period of last year, due to the company’s performance decline was mainly due to the impact of the country’s new energy subsidy standards and delayed delivery of policies, rising raw material prices, exchange rate fluctuations, loan increases, and interest rate increases. Due to profit and loss, the impact amounted to 455 million to 569 million yuan.
The BYD (002594.SZ), a leading company in the new energy automotive industry, also showed a slow growth in its interim results in 2017 and its third quarter results. In the 2017 semi-annual report and the third quarterly report, BYD’s net profit decreased by 23.75% and 23.82% year-on-year, respectively, of which non-net profit declined by more than 40% year-on-year. BYD expects net profit for 2017 to fall by 15.09% year-on-year to 20.03%. Similarly, JAC Motor’s 2017 profit is unlikely to be equal to 2016.
JAC achieved a net profit of 1.162 billion yuan attributable to the shareholders of listed companies in 2016. If this level of net profit is maintained, Jianghuai Automobile will need to realize a net profit of 943 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2017. “Although the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season, under the stimulation of the preferential policies for the purchase of small-displacement vehicle purchases, the end of the year is expected to usher in the rush-installation market. It is expected that the company’s earnings will be positive, but the net profit of more than RMB 900 million will be realized in a single quarter. "It's unlikely." A person in charge of an accounting firm said that JAC's 2017 net profit fell sharply year-on-year.
Haitong Securities Research Report believes that the new energy passenger vehicle is at a turning point in the industrial layout and storage capacity explosion in 2018. The downstream automaker prepares for double points in 2019 and puts in a large number of new models. The demand for upstream resources is strong and the price is strong. Will continue to significantly squeeze the middle reaches, affecting the profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain.
Risk transfer <br> Affected by the declining profits, new energy vehicle companies must not exert pressure on upstream battery suppliers. In the event that demand has slowed down, vehicle manufacturers have also proposed further price reductions for battery companies.
China Aviation Industry Corporation's Chengfei Integrated (002190.SZ) announced that the industry is expected to subsidize new energy vehicles in 2018 will still have a greater degree of decline, the company's lithium battery product structure to lithium iron phosphate battery, the main application areas New energy commercial vehicles represented by buses are particularly affected by the new policy of subsidies. Prior to this, Chengfei Integration had significantly revised its 2017 full-year performance forecast, saying that its net profit for 2017 was expected to decrease by 102 million yuan to 62 million yuan, compared with 138 million yuan in the same period of last year. Prior to this, the company had announced in the third quarter report that its annual performance was reduced by approximately 19 million yuan to 5 million yuan. It is understood that this is the first annual loss of Chengfei Integrated in 10 years. Cheng Fei integration explained that as the national new energy vehicle subsidy drastically decreased, the automaker transferred the pressure of subsidy reduction to the power battery manufacturer, and continued to lower the price, which led to the company's lithium battery sales price in the fourth quarter of 2017 fell more than expected. At the same time, the main material market of lithium batteries is in short supply, and the cost of procurement has fallen less than expected. Due to the drop in the price of lithium battery products that exceeds expectations, the company’s provision for inventory depreciation for lithium battery products has increased correspondingly. According to the company's market research information and the intention of placing orders with large customers, domestic well-known car companies will reduce their battery prices by 20% or more.
"Subsidy adjustment not only affects automakers, but also affects the entire industry chain. Because of the delayed issuance of subsidies, there will be longer delays between the upstream and downstream businesses. Short-term gross margins will decline and the impact will be passed on to the lithium-electricity industry. Under pressure, car companies' profits have been weakened, and technology has been forced to improve; long-term worry-free, dual-integration landings have been made to establish medium and long-term development mechanisms.” The relevant person of CAAM also stated that “the sales of new energy vehicles in 2018 will definitely reach 1 million. Whether it is car manufacturers or suppliers, in the coming year, we must speed up industrial upgrading and enhance our own strength. Otherwise, even if the prospects for new energy are no better, we still face enormous risks.”
The increasingly tight new energy vehicle subsidy policy is bringing the auto companies in the market to the market. Loss of policy advantage, but also compete with the joint venture brand for the market, the survival of the fittest has been inevitable, leaving the time of own brand is not much. After all, subsidy profits cannot support the strengthening of the new energy automotive industry, leaving the market full of competition and returning products to the essence. This is the right way to develop a new energy industry.