Subsidy "slash" forcing the logistics vehicle battery from Sanyuan to Lithium

"We hope that the price of logistics vehicle battery packs can be controlled at 1.1-1.2 yuan/Wh this year." Recently, a logistics company executive confided to Gaogong Lithium Battery. It is understood that with the new energy subsidies in 2018, the New Deal will drastically retreat, and the ternary-led logistics vehicle battery market may reshape.

The logistics company executives revealed to high-tech lithium, because this year's substantial fall in subsidies is a high probability event, car companies may give up the use of three yuan battery, instead planning to use relatively low prices of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

The logistics and vehicle enterprises calculated an economic account. If the calculation is based on the network transmission and slope reduction policy, the subsidy received this year for a 40KWh total electricity will be reduced by 22,500 yuan this year, which means that the cost will increase by at least 10,000-20000. yuan. The subsidy for lighter vehicles such as light trucks will have a greater reduction, and the cost reduction will be even greater.

Based on this, car manufacturers generally believe that through the battery price reduction, internal digestion, the slight increase in product prices to compensate for the part of the subsidy, is the most direct and effective way.

Why did you switch to lithium iron phosphate? From the perspective of reasons, the first is that since the beginning of the year, cobalt prices have begun to show signs of substantial rise, the ternary is most affected by the fluctuation of the price of cobalt, and there is a limit to the price drop compared with lithium iron phosphate.

Second, thanks to the cost reduction over the whole year of last year, lithium iron phosphate has achieved a large-scale energy density requirement of more than 115Wh/kg, which is enough to meet the energy density standard of the networked logistics vehicle subsidies.

Thirdly, in the current logistics vehicle field, the competitive landscape of “small country dominance and price is king” has emerged. As the terminal's commercialized operating tool, logistics vehicles are sensitive to price. In order to meet the demand of terminals, logistics vehicle companies have to squash cost.

Gaogong Lithium understands that since this year, as most battery companies are still fulfilling orders for delivery last year, the average price of logistics vehicle Sanyuan battery packs remains at 1.4-1.5 yuan/Wh, while the lithium iron phosphate battery pack market The price is 1.3-1.4 yuan/Wh. However, battery companies all said that prices will definitely continue to decline this year.

This means that turning to the selection of lithium iron phosphate will likely reduce the cost of nearly a million yuan for a car.

In fact, the price game between most car companies and battery companies has started since the end of last year. However, since the New Deal has not yet been introduced, the business conditions of most companies have not been met. At present, the logistics enterprises generally have a price reduction requirement of 20 to 30% for power battery companies.

Another logistics vehicle company executive also stated that the price reduction rate required by the logistics vehicle manufacturer is a comprehensive consideration of the comprehensive cost of multiple factors. The company will look for suppliers based on its own price standards, if the original supplier cannot reach the price of the vehicle manufacturer and Energy density requirements do not rule out replacement of suppliers.

Whether the logistics vehicle industry can reverse the decline of lithium iron phosphate has become an emerging growth market.

According to statistics from the Research Institute of Advanced Industrial Estates (GGII), the total installed capacity of power batteries in 2017 was approximately 36.4GWh, an increase of 29% year-on-year. The total battery capacity of the Sanyuan battery was 16.01GWh, up 148% year-on-year; and 18.04GWh of lithium iron phosphate, down 11% year-on-year.

The growth of lithium iron phosphate is less than expected. There are many reasons. The most important ones are the impact of policies of defrauding compensation, reconsideration of recommended catalogues, adjustment of subsidy policies, and requirements of 30,000 km. The first three quarters of new energy buses based on lithium iron phosphate batteries Market demand fell sharply, and it did not recover until the fourth quarter of market momentum. However, it still cannot stop its overall downward trend.

In the field of special vehicles, despite the market structure in which multiple battery types compete with each other, Sanyuan Battery still dominates the market with the advantage of high energy density.

According to GGII data, in 2017, the total installed capacity of new energy vehicles in China was approximately 8.42 GWh, an increase of 165% over the same period of last year. Among them, the top nine battery companies account for more than 63% of total installed capacity. As shown below:

From the top-ranking installed supporting data, the number of models supporting the ternary battery is far ahead, and the supply of lithium iron phosphate is concentrated in the hands of a few manufacturers.

The logistics vehicle sector based on the price of choice, or will bring new life to the lithium iron phosphate battery.

On the one hand, it is based on market interest. Gaogong Lithium understands that car manufacturers and terminal operators are generally optimistic about the electric logistics vehicle market, and it is expected that there will be a substantial increase in the electric logistics vehicle market in 2018. The reasons are as follows: 1. The policies introduced by the state and many local governments are all making great efforts to advance the advantages of electric logistics vehicles, especially road rights; 2. Electric logistics vehicles are increasingly favored by large-scale operators and become the first choice for urban distribution.

On the other hand, it will further divide the ternary-led logistics vehicle market. Once the logistics vehicle has switched to the selection of lithium iron phosphate, more lithium iron phosphate manufacturers will enter the competitive landscape of the logistics vehicle market, or will further differentiate the market of the three yuan battery, and the market-dominated pattern of the three yuan battery will also change.

However, some people in the industry pointed out that in the end, it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the policy, and negotiations on relevant prices and business conditions can ultimately confirm the choice of the market.

It is worth mentioning that, because of the sensitivity of the logistics sector to the price, or will lead to competitive strategies for low quality and low prices of some power battery companies, we need to be alert to the possibility of vicious competition caused by price war in the market.